April 2025 Whole Commodity Report
- Don Magruder
- 22 hours ago
- 3 min read
By Don Magruder
In last month’s report, I cautioned, “There is little doubt these tariffs will be inflationary unless these new tariffs push the housing market and economy into recession, which would be a worst-case scenario.”
Well, based on the commodity markets over the last couple of weeks, many believe the worst-case scenario is now likely.
The RoMac Building Supply Whole House Commodity Index (Index) for April 2025 increased .4 percent to $52,321, which is the fourth consecutive month of increases, and since the end of last year, the Index is up 2.1 percent. Tariff uncertainty in the wood commodities remains as those tariffs were announced, then suspended, announced, and now delayed. No one knows what will happen, but it appears the wood commodity markets are pricing in a housing recession, but the other areas where tariffs have stuck are starting to see some movement upward.
Oddly, the spruce markets retreated in the last 30 days, and the sheathing markets are at pricing normally quoted during the darkest days of winter or a housing slowdown. In my view, this reflects the real housing demand equation for the country.
The following are the primary price movers in the Index for the last 30 days.
CDX pine plywood was down 9.0 percent, while OSB sheathing gave back 8.1 percent. These items are not affected by tariffs and demonstrate the lessened demand.
Pine 2x4 was up 11.1 percent, while 2x6 pine retreated 8.4 percent, and 2x12 pine remained flat in pricing.
Spruce studs dropped 2.1 percent in price while 2x4 dimensional was off 5.8 percent, and 2x6 spruce dropped 6.0 percent as well.
Roof trusses increased 4.1 percent on higher 2x4 pine lumber pricing, especially in the harder-to-find grades.
Treated 2x4s were up 9.4 percent, and 4x4 treated added 5.0 percent.
Drywall increased 3.0 to 4.8 percent depending on thickness due to increased costs from manufacturers who are trying to lift pricing to cover higher manufacturing costs.
Roof shingles were up 6.7 percent on higher costs from manufacturers as well as most accessories.
Sill seal added 6.7 percent, and roof drip edge was up almost 8.0 percent.
The real big tariff hits from China have not hit yet, but unless there is some last-minute pullback or deal, these price increases could be brutal the next month or so. Plus, the 10% across-the-board tariffs on all countries and the pending tariffs on Canadian lumber could add more pain. What is missed by so many is that Chinese and other foreign related goods are used throughout all construction projects, and it could be something as small as a latch for a window or a lock for a door.
Honestly, the last couple of months for people in the building supply industry have been chaotic and exhausting at times. The uncertainty about future pricing, interest rates, and continued cost increases on many fixed operating costs are difficult to manage. What is most needed now is clarity and a calming down with clear strategies so everyone can understand the rules of the game.
Builders should have price escalation clauses in any project contract and keep a close eye on pricing and supply. There is a real chance supply chains could slow or freeze as importers slow down purchases because of the constant changes in United States tariff policies and the fact that there are few alternative sources for manufacturing to make up for the loss of manufacturing in China.
This ride is far from over, and everyone needs to cinch their straps.
The RoMac Building Supply Whole House Commodity Index is based on wholesale costs of the base components to build a 2,200-square-foot wood frame home with a concrete stem wall in Central Florida. The Index includes foundation, metal, concrete, block, stucco, cement, wood framing, siding, sheathings, trusses, roofing, drywall, insulation, windows, doors, trim, garage doors, and most building hardware. It does not include décor, electrical, plumbing, mechanical, landscaping, or labor. Because the Index uses current wholesale costs, this should be a strong indicator of the direction of building prices for the next 30-45 days.
Don Magruder is the Chief Executive Officer of RoMac Building Supply in Central Florida.
Stay up-to-date with the latest commodity trends in the building supply industry by subscribing to RoMac News. Click the button to subscribe today!